Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2.

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of "vaccine nationalism," we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low-access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid, equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic.

Longitudinal profiling of respiratory and systemic immune responses reveals myeloid cell-driven lung inflammation in severe COVID-19.

Immune response dynamics in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their severe manifestations have largely been studied in circulation. Here, we examined the relationship between immune processes in the respiratory tract and circulation through longitudinal phenotypic, transcriptomic, and cytokine profiling of paired airway and blood samples from patients with severe COVID-19 relative to heathy controls. In COVID-19 airways, T cells exhibited activated, tissue-resident, and protective profiles; higher T cell frequencies correlated with survival and younger age. Myeloid cells in COVID-19 airways featured hyperinflammatory signatures, and higher frequencies of these cells correlated with mortality and older age. In COVID-19 blood, aberrant CD163+ monocytes predominated over conventional monocytes, and were found in corresponding airway samples and in damaged alveoli. High levels of myeloid chemoattractants in airways suggest recruitment of these cells through a CCL2-CCR2 chemokine axis. Our findings provide insights into immune processes driving COVID-19 lung pathology with therapeutic implications for targeting inflammation in the respiratory tract.

Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes.

Given vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Two critical issues arise: How timing of delivery of the second dose will affect infection dynamics and how it will affect prospects for the evolution of viral immune escape via a buildup of partially immune individuals. Both hinge on the robustness of the immune response elicited by a single dose as compared with natural and two-dose immunity. Building on an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that in the short term, focusing on one dose generally decreases infections, but that longer-term outcomes depend on this relative immune robustness. We then explore three scenarios of selection and find that a one-dose policy may increase the potential for antigenic evolution under certain conditions of partial population immunity. We highlight the critical need to test viral loads and quantify immune responses after one vaccine dose and to ramp up vaccination efforts globally.

Analysis of respiratory and systemic immune responses in COVID-19 reveals mechanisms of disease pathogenesis.

Immune responses to respiratory viruses like SARS-CoV-2 originate and function in the lung, yet assessments of human immunity are often limited to blood. Here, we conducted longitudinal, high-dimensional profiling of paired airway and blood samples from patients with severe COVID-19, revealing immune processes in the respiratory tract linked to disease pathogenesis. Survival from severe disease was associated with increased CD4 + T cells and decreased monocyte/macrophage frequencies in the airway, but not in blood. Airway T cells and macrophages exhibited tissue-resident phenotypes and activation signatures, including high level expression and secretion of monocyte chemoattractants CCL2 and CCL3 by airway macrophages. By contrast, monocytes in blood expressed the CCL2-receptor CCR2 and aberrant CD163 + and immature phenotypes. Extensive accumulation of CD163 + monocyte/macrophages within alveolar spaces in COVID-19 lung autopsies suggested recruitment from circulation. Our findings provide evidence that COVID-19 pathogenesis is driven by respiratory immunity, and rationale for site-specific treatment and prevention strategies.

Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years.

The future trajectory of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic hinges on the dynamics of adaptive immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); however, salient features of the immune response elicited by natural infection or vaccination are still uncertain. We use simple epidemiological models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future COVID-19 cases, given different assumptions regarding the protective efficacy and duration of the adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2, as well as its interaction with vaccines and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that variations in the immune response to primary SARS-CoV-2 infections and a potential vaccine can lead to markedly different immune landscapes and burdens of critically severe cases, ranging from sustained epidemics to near elimination. Our findings illustrate likely complexities in future COVID-19 dynamics and highlight the importance of immunological characterization beyond the measurement of active infections for adequately projecting the immune landscape generated by SARS-CoV-2 infections.